Coronavirus and viruses

Can these techniques be applied elsewhere? Is it too late in places like the United Kingdom and the United States?
Many epidemiologists and mathematical modelers who have been plotting the possible trajectory of this pandemic think there is no choice but to try some of the serious social distancing measures other countries have taken.

But Marc Lipsitch, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said the possibility of containment — stopping spread — through rigorous tracing of all contacts of known cases is not realistic. That window has closed, he said.

“I think one thing to learn from those experiences is that what’s appropriate when an epidemic is small and mostly ascertained is not appropriate when an epidemic is large and mostly not ascertained,” he said.

“I would say put in place as intense as possible social distancing and get the messaging from the White House consistent with that,” Lipsitch said. “Right away, everywhere, with the short-term goal of trying to reduce the … demand on the health care system.”

Any universities still in session should send students home, especially those living in dormitories “which are one step away from cruise ships in terms of density and poor ventilation,” he said.

Lipsitch said time is limited to make a difference.

“The data that we just assembled from Wuhan about the timing and magnitude of the peak demand for critical care shows first that it can very quickly — even without that many people being infected compared to the whole population — exceed per capita bed capacity in the United States,” Lipsitch said.

He noted there was a four-week lag between the shutdown of Wuhan and the overwhelming of critical care units. “So if you wait till you see a problem, then you have another month of agony, at least.”

It appeared that was the kind of message Britain was not heeding.

There was a huge controversy late last week when it seemed like the country intended to simply allow enough people to become infected so that the population would develop “herd immunity.”

Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it was never the government’s plan to drive toward herd immunity; rather, there was an acknowledgment that might be what happens because the virus could be so hard to control.

“It’s not been an aim to get everyone infected as soon as possible. It’s more this really tough situation we’ve got where the options we have are probably not going to be able to fully control this in the long term,” Kucharski said.

The country has now taken a swing toward the types of early and aggressive social distancing methods other countries are trying to implement. The government is urging people with even mild symptoms to self-isolate; but Kucharski worried that message was going unheard in the din about herd immunity.

The country, he said, was trying to save some of the more difficult measures — really stringent social distancing approaches that are hard to sustain over time — for closer to when they are needed.

“It makes sense to use them, given that they’re short-term measures, use them when they’ve got the most impact,” Kucharski said. “You can’t shut down your country for months.”

Rivers suggested that was a risky approach. “I think that’s a difficult thing to time. My recommendations for the U.S. context at least, is to begin social distancing measures early,” she said.

In the United States, a tepid early response — marked by a prolonged delay in ramping up testing and a White House that initially seemed intent on playing down the scale of the threat — has given way to a war footing.

This week the White House urged Americans to embrace social distancing by not taking part in gatherings of more than 10 people. In a number of communities, restaurants are closed to all but takeout or delivery service. Some states have closed schools. The country is on edge.

But with large-scale testing capacity still coming up to speed, it remains unclear how deeply the virus has embedded itself into the country, and whether the measures people and their local, state, and national governments are trying to adopt can slow the coronavirus’ progress.

It is also unclear how long communities can sustain the dramatic lifestyle changes that appear to be needed to slow the virus’s spread.

“Right now people are approaching this if they are basically sheltering in place for … a Minneapolis blizzard, lasting two or three days. And that’s the mindset that they have. Where, in fact, we need to look at this like a coronavirus winter, where we’re only in the first weeks of what could be a long season,” warned Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.

“This could last easily many months. And we need to make our actions proportional to the risk in the community or else we run the risk of people just getting tired of them when that particular community has not seen increased transmission of the virus.”

This explains a lot and is very educational. The more you know, the more you can participate in a positive manner, keeping you and your loved ones safe. (See this article online via link in comments below)
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.  
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward....
Now, here comes this Coronavirus...it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human.
Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs.
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now!

A new report, from the world’s leading epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London, is suggesting intensive active suppression, including isolation of all cases and extreme social distancing measures, may be the most effective immediate intervention to reduce mortality and healthcare demand as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread. The new data, reportedly influencing both US and UK government policy, recommends suppression measures may have to be intermittently turned on and off over the next 18 months until a vaccine is developed and mass immunity occurs

 Why does soap work so well on the new coronavirus and, indeed, most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer.

That sounds scientific. Let me explain.

Soap dissolves the fat membrane, and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and “dies,” or rather, it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive. Viruses can be active outside the body for hours, even days.

Disinfectants, or liquids, wipes, gels and creams containing alcohol (and soap) have a similar effect but are not as good as regular soap. Apart from alcohol and soap, antibacterial agents in those products don’t affect the virus structure much. Consequently, many antibacterial products are basically just an expensive version of soap in how they act on viruses. Soap is the best, but alcohol wipes are good when soap is not practical or handy, for example in office reception areas.

Soap outcompetes the interactions between the virus and the skin surface, and the virus gets detached and falls apart like a house of cards.
Supramolecular chemistry
But why, exactly, is soap so good? To explain that, I will take you through a journey of supramolecular chemistry, nanoscience and virology. I will try to explain this in generic terms, which means leaving out special chemistry terms. (I must point out that, while I am an expert in supramolecular chemistry and the assembly of nanoparticles, I am not a virologist.)

Aeroméxico passengers flying from Europe to the United States with a layover in Mexico will not be allowed to board their connecting flights, but will instead be forced to wait 14 days before continuing on to their destinations.

Beginning Friday, the United States will not allow passengers from countries in Europe’s Schengen Area to enter the country directly in an attempt to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus known as Covid-19.

The Schengen Area of the European Union includes France, Germany, Austria, Spain, Sweden, Italy and other countries in mainland Europe.



Aeroméxico had a similar policy for travelers to the United States from China, where the virus originated.

“We did not allow passengers coming from China in the last 14 days to make their connection to the United States under instruction from the [U.S.] government. Now we’re including passengers from Europe in this scheme,” said Grupo Aeroméxico security director Arturo Duhart.

The airline added that it is reinforcing its sanitation protocols on its fleet of airplanes used for international routes.

“When a plane arrives from an at-risk area, we are cleaning the whole passenger cabin with a nebulizer and we’re also doing deep cleans,” said Duhart.

There are currently 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus, up from 12 cases yesterday, but health officials say that a widespread outbreak of the virus is inevitable in the coming weeks.

from facebook wrote:From a friend just now “Cabo does have Corona virus but no lab facilities to test.
Karen just let me know that Paulette came back from Cabo and tested positive in Victoria and her and her husband are quarantined in North saanich near Sidney. “ Just an FYI.

from facebook wrote:I was at imss in La Paz the other day and it was crammed to the rafters. Ideal breeding ground.
Also this AND they tell you to get a flu shot in addition to washing your hands and staying inside. Bollocks! Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as virus interference.”

I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.

MONDAY, MARCH 9, 2020
Corona Virus and Basic Science
While this blog is a windsurfing blog, I occasionally post about something that is not windsurfing related. This post was prompted by my friend Craig, who wrote in a comment to a Facebook post:
"You know more about health care than the average person. Can you try to post 2x as much information (I just re-posted your WHO link) as outrage?"

He made a valid point in his comment. I happen to have a Ph. D. in biology, which included immunology and microbiology. I have been working in the biotech field ever since, and happen to have a certain affinity to math and statistics that perhaps is rare. Due to my background, some things are obvious to me that may not be intuitive to most people. Therefore, I'll try to share some of my understanding here. I'll use a "Questions and Answers" format that reflects on some of the common questions, statements, and misunderstandings.

Coronavirus is mysteriously sparing kids; understanding why may help defeat the virus

By
William Wan and
Joel Achenbach
March 10, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. PDT
One of the few mercies of the spreading coronavirus is that it leaves young children virtually untouched — a mystery virologists say may hold vital clues as to how the virus works.

In China, only 2.4 percent of reported cases were children and only 0.2 percent of reported cases were children who got critically ill, according to the World Health Organization. China has reported no case of a young child dying of the disease covid-19.

Meanwhile, the new coronavirus has proved especially deadly on the other end of the age spectrum. The fatality rate in China for those over 80 is an estimated 21.9 percent, per the WHO. For ages 10 to 39, however, the fatality rate is roughly 0.2 percent, according to a separate study drawing on patient records of 44,672 confirmed cases. And fatalities and severe symptoms are almost nonexistent at even younger ages.

Event:  There is an ongoing outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) first identified in Wuhan, China.  The global public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, with more than 100,000 reported cases worldwide. 

As of March 9, the Mexican Ministry of Health reported seven confirmed cases of COVID-19 within its borders; authorities are monitoring additional suspected cases.

Visit the local government COVID-19 websites with advice for the general public and the most recent Ministry of Health notices for updated information.

Actions to Take:
• Consult the CDC website for the most up-to-date information.  
• For the most recent information on what you can do to reduce your risk of contracting COVID-19 please see the CDC’s latest recommendations.  
• Visit the COVID-19 crisis page on travel.state.gov for the latest information.  
• Check with your airlines or cruise lines regarding any updated information about your travel plans and/or restrictions.
• Visit our Embassy webpage on COVID-19 for information on conditions in Mexico.
• Visit the Department of Homeland Security’s website on the latest travel restrictions to the U.S. 
• Call the Mexican Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 information hotline at 800 0044 800 for local information while in Mexico.  English-speaking operators are often, but not always, available.

Assistance:
• For Emergency Assistance for U.S. citizens in Mexico, call 1-800-681-9374 from Mexico or 1-844-528-6611 from the United States.
• The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City is located at:
Paseo de la Reforma 305
Colonia Cuauhtémoc
06500, Ciudad de México
Phone: +52-55-5080-2000
Fax: +52-55-5080-2005
E-Mail: ACSMexicoCity@state.gov
• State Department – Consular Affairs: 888-407-4747 or 202-501-4444
• Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency.
• Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter.
• Follow the U.S. Embassy in Mexico on Facebook and Twitter.
• Review the Crime and Safety Reports for Mexico.
• Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist.

Alerta de Salud-Embajada de Estados Unidos en la Ciudad de México

Evento: Existe un brote continuo de Coronavirus (COVID-19) identificado por primera vez en Wuhan, China. La amenaza a la salud pública mundial que plantea COVID-19 es alta, con más de 100,000 casos reportados en todo el mundo.

A partir del 9 de marzo, la Secretaría de Salud de México informó siete casos confirmados de COVID-19 dentro de sus fronteras; las autoridades están monitoreando casos sospechosos adicionales.

Visite los sitios web del gobierno local sobre COVID-19, mismos que contienen consejos para el público en general, y los avisos más recientes de la Secretaría de Salud para obtener información actualizada.

Acciones que tomar:
• Consulte el sitio web de CDC para obtener la información más actualizada.
• Para obtener la información más reciente sobre lo que puede hacer para reducir su riesgo de contraer COVID-19, consulte las últimas recomendaciones de CDC.
• Visite la página de crisis COVID-19 en travel.state.gov para obtener la información más reciente.
• Verifique con sus aerolíneas o líneas de cruceros en relación a cualquier información actualizada sobre sus planes de viaje y / o restricciones.
• Visite nuestra página web de la Embajada en COVID-19 para obtener información sobre las condiciones en México.
• Visite el sitio web del Departamento de Seguridad Nacional sobre las últimas restricciones de viaje a los EE. UU.
• Llame a la línea directa de información COVID-19 de la Secretaría de Salud de México al 800 0044 800 para obtener información local mientras se encuentre en México. Hay operadores bilingües a menudo, pero no siempre están disponibles.

Asistencia:
• Para asistencia de emergencia a ciudadanos estadounidenses en México, llame al 1-800-681-9374 desde México o al 1-844-528-6611 desde los Estados Unidos.
• La Embajada de los Estados Unidos en la Ciudad de México se encuentra en:
Paseo de la Reforma 305
Colonia Cuauhtémoc
06500, Ciudad de México
Teléfono: + 52-55-5080-2000
Fax: + 52-55-5080-2005
Correo electrónico: ACSMexicoCity@state.gov
• Departamento de Estado - Asuntos consulares: 888-407-4747 o 202-501-4444
• Inscríbase en el Programa de inscripción de viajeros inteligentes (STEP) para recibir alertas y facilitar su localización en caso de emergencia.
• Siga al Departamento de Estado en Facebook y Twitter.
• Siga a la Embajada de los Estados Unidos en México en Facebook y Twitter.
• Revise los Informes de Crimen y Seguridad para México.
• Prepare un plan de contingencia para situaciones de emergencia. Revise la Lista de verificación del viajero.

US Government to help Baja California Sur with health measures (CoVID-19)
Larry Thompson Wednesday, February 26, 2020



Given the uncontrolled expansion of the Coronavirus CoVID-19 epidemic in several countries around the world, the U.S. government will support Baja California Sur with medical personnel and the latest technology to establish early detection sites for possible infections with this disease.



According to information released yesterday by the local government, these reviews will be done with supervision of personnel from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), at international airports (Cabo San Lucas, San José del Cabo, La Paz and Loreto), ports and the road access of the 28th parallel in Guerrero Negro.

The U.S. mission arrives this Wednesday, as confirmed by Baja's Health Services Chief Heriberto Soto Haro.

Quora digest wrote:Scott Hsieh, works at David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA
Answered 18h ago · Upvoted by Susan Cook, Ph.D. Microbiology & Virology, Baylor College of Medicine (1984)
Like it or not, the Diamond Princess provides a good case study. 3700 individuals were “quarantined,” and each of those individuals was tested and retested during the following several weeks. We are diagnosing everyone on that boat who could possibly be diagnosed.

Of the 3700 individuals, about 300 were symptomatic + diagnosed, and about 330 were NOT symptomatic but still diagnosed based on viral tests. Of the 300 with symptoms and virus, 6 have died. This is the 2% mortality rate we have been hearing about, although the cruise ship population skews old. (If we included the asymptomatic carriers it would be 1%. We still might see a few more deaths in the weeks to come.)

More importantly: the coronavirus is a problem *because* of its middling, Goldilocks mortality rate. If it were much lower (e.g., 0.2%), it would be like the normal seasonal flu. If it were much higher (e.g. 20%), it would be like the H7N9 flu or SARS/MERS; it is very obvious when you get these viruses, so they are consequently easier to contain. You have it, you’re obviously dying, you seek immediate medical attention. For the coronavirus, maybe you just have a bad cold? Maybe you have no symptoms at all? It’s mild enough that you can escape detection (even if you’re paying attention) and you might just pass it along.

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from surviving yucatan, wrote:https://yucalandia.com/2020/02/29/practical-considerations-for-coronavirus-covid-19-risk-reduction/

Practical Considerations for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Risk Reduction
Posted on February 29, 2020by yucalandia
As USA has just recorded their first Coronavirus death …**

How is the Wuhan Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) affecting the people we know & love?

Are you at risk? … What are the risks of death for Covid-19? …  2% ?  … as reported by the talking heads of Big Media outlets?

What is your personal risk?
Curiously, as we consider men vs women,    young vs old,    healthy vs sick people … What about healthy people with underlying conditions – that are under control? … Diabetes? … Lung Problems? … High Blood Pressure?

What about people with immune system problems, or cancer … people who are being treated with steroids or other drugs suppress their immune systems, but who are currently living healthy lives?

Considering all those real world factors … realize that that no group on Earth has the “2% death rate”  described by Big Media.

So far … The actual statistics are not quite what Big Media … FaceBook … and other people claim… Sadly,  UNLIKE FLU …. COVID-19 infected people with ~no symptoms~ are shedding as much virus as COVID-19 people hospitalized with critical infections.

= = = = = = = = =
Sadly, unlike Flu … COVID-19 death rates are 46X – 75X higher than Flu, for the higher-risk groups … Cardiovascular disease patients … Diabetics … High Blood Pressure & people with respiratory (lung) problems ... people over age 60 … and Cancer patients & others with compromised immune systems.

= = = = = = = = =

First US Death reported …
Supposedly moderately healthy man “in his ’50’s” … no history of travel or contact with a known COVID-19 case …
R.I.P.


https://abc7ny.com/5975419/

= = = = = = = = =



Before we dive into the actual current (Feb. 29, 2020) COVID-19 statistics, consider this graphic:

COVID Mortality Rates

Notice that depending on your age,  you may take very different precautions.

Then consider the consequences that many contagious people with COVID-19 are infecting the people around them for a full 2 weeks … before they show any symptoms.

Even scarier:  Some contagious people spreading COVID-19, never show symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/?fbclid=IwAR3nS0l8iVKfUZVRWTSQaX60ufwevH5T2__SuoRyDuA5pFsPj7hA428hkzA

“COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.



Sex ratio
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on sex. When reading these numbers, it must be taken into account that smoking in China is much more prevalent among males. Smoking increases the risks of respiratory complications.

SEX
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases DEATH RATE
all cases
Male
4.7%
2.8%
Female
2.8%
1.7%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing (“comorbid”) medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).  ”

Other Current Statistics on COVID-19

86,000 People are confirmed sick with Coronavirus at the moment across 47 countries,
of which 79,000 are in China.   This means that if you are not in or haven’t recently visited China, this might reduce 94% of your concern.

If you do contract Coronavirus, this still is not a cause for panic because:
82% of the Cases are MILD
18% of the Cases are Serious or Critical …

Which means that even if you do get the virus, you are more likely to recover from it. … but … there have been 3,000 deaths out of 86,000 confirmed cases.

Latest data here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3uSe5VOzGNmgjA7o-JQ7pFXr5EAUeyrCJVRydCHLGbylzgZb1wpNhYSII

Some have said, “but this is worse than SARS !.
SARS had a fatality rate of 10% while COVID-19 has an overall fatality rate of 3.5%… but as we saw from the results above, your actual risks of death may be as high as 15%.

This means that:
if you are under 50 years of age and don’t live in China – you are more likely to win the lottery (which has a 1 in 45,000,000 chance).


Handwashing?
Handwashing has been shown to be reduce your COVID-19 risks by between just 20%-25%. … but    every little bit of risk reduction    adds up to overall lower risks.

Effective handwashing takes some surprising effort … 30 seconds (whistle Yankee Doodle, twice) of brisk rubbing with soapy suds …

Hand-sanitizers?
Hand-sanitizer gel usage can be very effective  IF the handsanitizer has over 60% alcohol…


Handling Money??
… Bake the money for 20 minutes** in a 200º F warming oven …

A 200º F oven is 93º C …
and Yes … That’s a proven old-school technique from the 1930’s => Dry Sterilization …

Why??

…  “Some coronaviruses can linger on surfaces for up to 9 days.”
**Notice that if an object is at 145º F  (65º C) for at least 3 minutes, the heat kills all viruses & all bacteria and even Cryptoporids  & their encysted spores.   That means that if we spread the bills & coins out on cookie sheets in an already warm 200ºF warming oven – the bills & coins temperatures heated for 10 minutes, would easily exceed the 145ºF @ 3 minutes standard. …  Since some people’s ovens may not be at 200ºF, and since some people may put in small clumps of bills, then 20 minutes at 200ºF gets typical clumps of bills upt to 145ºF for 3 mnutes.

Why aren’t the Big Media talking heads reporting this?
It’s not clear … but China reports it’s Central Bank is now sterilizing their money.
https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html


Wearing a Mask?
“That’s the problem … you should only be wearing a mask if you are sick.”

Notice that wearing a well-fitting N95 mask  can keep BOTH the caregivers and the AT-RISK healthy patients (who have compromised immune systems or lung problems) … from inhaling over 99% other people’s sneezed droplets.

None of us want to inhale this gunk   …  floating around for hours.

Steven Fry's photo.

Realities of Well-fitting N95 Masks     versus   stylish & chic Surgical Masks:
Sadly … Many talking heads on TV    and even some Medical Doctors & Nurses are quoting results for leaky surgical masks … because as non-scientists, they aren’t familiar with the scientific test results – and they inappropriately substitute their knowledge of surgical masks (SM’s) in place of N-95 FFR mask performance.

Typical Doctor’s & Nurses surgical masks leak roughly 40% of the contagious sneezed aerosol droplets – through gaps around the nose & cheeks.

Surgical masks are designed to catch Doctor’s sneezes & Nurse’s coughs in the ER … to keep the patient safe from the Doctors & Nurses – protecting the patient … not the Doctor nor the Nurse.

Well-fitted N95 FFRs masks are INSTEAD designed to protect the patient from inhaling contagious sneezed aerosol droplets floating around in the air … protecting the wearer from inhaling 99.8% of small airborne liquid aerosol.



Again … Notice that a well fitted N95 mask is proven to block 99.8% of the contagious droplets sneezed~coughed by others.

Notice that both caregivers & people with lung problems or compromised immune systems … diabetes patients … cancer patients … and cardiovascular disease …. need well fitting N95 masks … NOT SURGICAL MASKS …

NOT this … These styles leak air around the nose & cheeks:

Steven Fry's photo.

Instead, consider a well-fitting N95 mask, that has no gaps around the nose or cheeks,    like this:

Steven Fry's photo.

Proofs:
Tests using aerosols in the size range of sneezed droplets showed … two different N95 FFRs showed just 0.17% and 0.86% “Filter Penetration”… blocking even tiny 0.045 micron (um) aerosol droplets.

while the basic leaky Surgical Mask had 88.1% “Filter Penetration” …

For comparison, sneezed contagious droplets at 0.5 um – 12 um are much easier to block (stop from inhalation) than the 99.8% efficiency found for 0.045 um test aerosol droplets.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4589201/

WHEN to Wear a Mask:
Virologists are saying that when a Coronavirus patient sneezes or coughs, it can be inhaled by people within a 6 ft (2 meters) radius … and within 10 minutes of the infected person sneezing or coughing.

That means anyone sick with COVID-19 should wear a mask, to catch their sneezed droplets,  and anyone within 6 ft of an uncovered sneeze or cough can benefit from wearing a well fitting N95 mask.

Example:  You’re in the grocery store line, and the infected person in line behind you sneezes, and the person in front of you coughs – you’re pretty jammed up, without a mask. …  and if those people in line coughing & sneezing were wearing masks … the it’s a seriously good help for everyone within 2 meters.

Then … Consider the scientific study results for contagious viral transmission contact on a plane.

One sick person walking down the aisle to the bathroom is shown to potentially contaminate every single person they walk by (15 rows x 2 people on each side) – if they happen to sneeze or cough.

Well fitting N-95 Masks on the sick people, and on the people on the aisle seats … get help = protection from the masks.

That means that for all the contagious people with no symptoms, walking around, infecting others with COVID-19… it points to contact mechanisms.

Stopping Transmission that happens When We Touch Things:
Unfortunately, it means that we touch a surface that they touched, and then we (without thinking) we touch our face, nose or mouth … or casually rub our eye … or we touch a snack that we pick up.

Since Coronaviruses are shown to remain viable on surfaces up to 9 days … it points to some real risks we may not normally think about,

like touching a contaminated counter (at a bank, grocery checkout, or airport) … or touching the handle on a shopping cart or basket … or the grocery store cooler doors…or touch the keypad on a CC machine (to enter a PIN) or ATM keypad …

or touching money … that’s passed through many hands during the previous 9 days.

or worse yet … a shared keyboard at the nurses station or an ER’s tech-station ???

That perspective may mean re-thinking a bit about how we go through our days.

= = = = = = =

So,  yes,    even with washing hands (20 full seconds of soapy suds & aggressive-brisk rubbing   to get a 25% reduced risk) … and a good N95 well fitting mask (reducing airborne respiratory virus to near zero)  … we are still left with the risks of eye contact …

but hopefully,   nobody sneezes into your eye.

Finally,   Follow your doctor’s advice …   If COVID-19 appears in your area,  consider avoiding crowds and avoiding areas where previous people’s sneezes & coughs contaminated aerosol droplets linger in the air – and are transmitted by the building’s big air-handling systems (like on cruise ships) …  and maybe even consider sterilizing your money (??)

… Bake the money for 20 – 30 minutes in a 200º F warming oven … 200º F is 93º C …
It’s a well proven old-school technique from the 1930’s => Dry Sterilization …
If you or loved ones have loved-ones with pre-existing medical conditions … including suppressed immune systems, diabetes, cardiac conditions,  respiratory problems,   cancer,    and even high blood pressure … consider restricting their visitors  … and apply the same handwashing,  hand sanitizer, & N95 mask protections for their caregivers – so the caregivers do not unknowingly challenge the patient with a Coronavirus infection that is not showing symptoms.

* * * * * *
Be well … Take reasonable precautions …  Do your best to protect loved-ones with pre-existing medical conditions … including suppressed immune systems, diabetes, cardiac conditions,  respiratory problems,   cancer,    and even high blood pressure.


Disclaimers:
As always, consult with your physician for any health issues.   This article is only for informational & entertainment purposes.  It is not to replace your Doctor’s advice.

and …. Stay current with the updates on local & regional health concerns for where you live …   Fortunately,  Mexico has had just 4 confirmed cases so far.